The Shabab have finally withdrawn from the whole of the capital after keeping their lines for the past two years, losing thousands of fighters and killing about the same number from the TFG – and to a lesser extent from AMISOM.
The TFG will try to claim a major victory, but as I have said before in my blog posts, this has always been in the workings, with the Shabab security calling for the withdrawal so as to be able to intensify their operations, and to have their enemy thin themselves and give them more exposure.
The coming days will see a rise of hit-and-run operations and despite the euphoria some Mogadishans may have as a result of a chance to go back to their homes, Hamar (Mogadishu) is in for a long, bloody urban guerilla warfare featuring assassinations, bombings and night raids.
The dark green are the shabab areas; the light green was the pro-shabab no-man’s land; the light blue was the TFG-AMISOM area and the blue/white is the TFG-allied tribal area (mostly anti-Shabab clans).
As can be seen from the map, the Shabab controlled half the capital and since there was no major battle last night, any claims to be made by the TFG of having routed them will be false propaganda.